The state of America

According to Peter Turchin, the nation is collapsing, or at least becoming more chaotic. But is it collapsing entirely, or just in a few states?

Who knows. From maps it looks like the south has major problems, as does New Mexico and Michigan, but this doesn't really seem like enough data.

A better question is where the money is. During the Civil War, profiteering by businesses skyrocketed as traditional governmental and societal norms broke down. Corporations and businessman could basically charge whatever prices they wanted, and the government paid for it with the spoils of war. So in the coming crisis, who stands to profit most? Companies like Facebook, Google, Twitter are going to broadcast the revolution, no question. Due to the First Amendment and settled case law they are unlikely to be stopped. But they probably won't make much money, since their business models rely on advertising rather than direct supply.

Civil wars in other countries have been funding arms manufacturers and mercenaries. Production in the U.S. of handguns has reached record levels but has flattened out again. Guns are pretty much saturated in America though, with an estimated 1.2 guns per person. Even if they weren't, the present rate of gun sales of roughly 1 per 10 people per year means 50% will own a gun by the time the 2020-2021 predicted crisis peak rolls around. And more advanced weapons like missiles or nukes are unlikely to be accessed. Typical protest accessories like bandanas, smoke grenades, tear gas, water trucks, and riot shields are likely to sell well though. Cameras and phones will continue, although the market for phones is likely saturated.